The $10,000 Test

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Popular money advice, tested on 30 years of real data.

Every week I take a piece of money advice everybody repeats and run it through real market history. Not opinions. What $10,000 actually did, including when the advice fails.

Real data, not a straight line

$10,000 in the S&P 500, 1996 to 2025

$10,000 in the S&P 500 at the start of 1996 grew to about $185,000 by the end of 2025 with dividends reinvested, falling hard in 2000 to 2002 and in 2008 along the way
S&P 500 with dividends reinvested (SPY), before fees and taxes. About 10.2% a year, with two crashes along the way. That's the kind of history every test runs through.

How it works

The claim. The test. The verdict in dollars.

1 · THE CLAIM

Advice you've heard

"Buy the dip." "You can take 8% a year in retirement." "Pay off the mortgage first." The things people repeat on TV, radio and the internet.

2 · THE TEST

Real market history

We run the advice through 30 years of real data, month by month, every start year we have, dividends and inflation included. No picking the year that makes it look good.

3 · THE VERDICT

What $10,000 did

Plain dollars, good or bad, and an honest verdict.

Test #1

Dave Ramsey's 8% retirement rule

Dave Ramsey has said you can take 8% a year out of a stock portfolio in retirement. We tested it on every retiree who started from 1996 through 2008.

BUSTED
  • Retire in January 2000 with $1,000,000, take 8% raised with inflation: the money is gone by August 2009.
  • 8% ran out of money for 12 of 13 people who retired from 1996 through 2008.
  • The 4% rule ran out for none of them.
Watch on YouTube Get the full numbers

$1 million, retired January 2000

Taking 8% a year vs. 4% a year

Taking 8% a year, raised with inflation, ran the $1 million down to zero by August 2009. Taking 4% still left about $260,000 in 2026.
S&P 500 with dividends reinvested, withdrawals raised with inflation (CPI), no fees or taxes. Data through October 2026.

Coming up

Next on the test bench

A new test every week. Tell us what to test next in the YouTube comments or by replying to any email.

  1. "Buy the dip": invest now, or wait for a crash?
  2. Miss the 10 best days, lose half your money?
  3. "Sell in May and go away"
  4. Lump sum vs. a little each month
  5. Warren Buffett's 90/10 plan for retirees
  6. Pay off the mortgage early, or invest?
  7. Is your home your best investment?
  8. Take Social Security at 62 and invest it?
  9. Does the stock market always come back?
  10. Does gold protect you in a crash?

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Our rules

Receipts, not hype.

No made-up numbers

Every number comes from the test data, and we show when the advice fails, not just when it works.

Nobody pays for a mention

No company pays to be in a test, a video or an email.

Holdings disclosed

JJ says what he owns that relates to each topic, in the video and the email.

JJ, host of The $10K Test

Your host

Hi, I'm JJ.

I got tired of money advice that gets repeated everywhere and tested nowhere. So I test it: real market history, the same rules for every start year, and the result in plain dollars. Sometimes the famous advice holds up. Sometimes it would have cost you a fortune.

How the tests work, and what I own →